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by Andrew Brokos
Why are tournaments so profitable for the knowledgeable player? It’s
because you are always getting a giant overlay. 💪 In a 180-man Stars tourney, for
instance, you are competing against no more than 100 opponents, and quite often less.
💪 In other words, there are at most 100 other players trying to win the tournament. The
rest are just trying 💪 to cash, and might as well be playing a different game altogether.
These players are not competing with you for 💪 the top prizes.
In the early stages, they
are playing to accumulate, just like you are. Their strategy is not intrinsically 💪 –EV,
though their play may be.
In the money, most of them are happy to be there and will
gamble up, 💪 and are too short to do anything else anyway. Again, their strategy is not
intrinsically –EV here.
On the bubble, however, 💪 they are folding much too often and
leaving a ton of money on the table. You need to put yourself 💪 in a position to scoop up
as much of it as possible, as this is far and away the best 💪 opportunity you will have
to accumulate chips. Here are some tips on how to do that.
1. Raise. Even if you 💪 know
this already, you probably aren’t doing it enough. Never open limp. Not under the gun,
not on the button, 💪 not ever. The odds are just too good that you will win it without a
showdown. (This point is probably 💪 too strongly stated, but you get the idea.)
2. Fold.
Just because A9 is ahead of your range when you push 💪 over a late position raise doesn’t
mean you should call. There are a lot of players on the bubble who 💪 know you are
stealing but are too afraid to push back, and there are a lot more who think the
💪 correct strategy is to wait for big hands and then ‘punish’ your raise. If it starts
happening all the time, 💪 then you can loosen your calling range (and in fact find
yourself in some very +EV spots of a different 💪 sort), but the first time someone comes
over the top, they’ve probably got a hand. You can steal back the 💪 chips you are folding
away in a single orbit, whereas one or two thin calls could cripple your stealing
ability. 💪 There is so much easy money to be had without going to showdown on the bubble
that you shouldn’t be 💪 eager to get there.
3. Target the Weak. The decision to open
raise is determined by three factors, in order of 💪 importance: who is in the blind, your
position, and your cards. You should start identifying likely play-to-cashers before
the bubble 💪 even begins, and continue paying attention to who is not defending blinds
and who seems to be making big laydowns.
4. 💪 Size Up the Competition. The
play-to-cashers are not the competition. At this point, they are just giving away free
money, 💪 and all you have to do is take it. But you still have to play poker with the
other play-to-winners, 💪 who are also trying to scoop up all that dead money. These
players will be a lot more willing to 💪 re-steal, steal raise, etc., and you need to
adapt accordingly.
5. Look at the Chat Box. The dialogue in the chat 💪 box gives you a
lot of clues about who is playing to cash and about evolving table dynamics. I’ve seen
💪 players say things like “I would have called if it weren’t the bubble”, “I’m folding JJ
here”, and “Yes! Yes! 💪 Yes!” every time they win a pot. It’s like they want me to run
them over.
Players will also comment on 💪 how often you’ve been raising, or threaten to
call “next time.” Pay attention to these clues, as they can help 💪 you to make tough
decisions when facing a re-steal.
6. Spread It Around. Most players take it personally
when you raise 💪 their blinds. If you abuse the same player often enough, he will feel
like he has to stand up to 💪 you, and you will have baited him into playing correctly.
Conversely, many play-to-cashers will recognize that you are stealing but 💪 not
particularly care as long as they don’t feel singled out. So if you raised weak-tighty
#1’s blind the last 💪 two orbits, go after the player on his right this time.
7. Protect
Your Blinds. If you call or re-raise out 💪 of your blind a few times, most aggressive
players will back off, as there is usually much easier money to 💪 be found.
Play-to-cashers will occasionally make weak attempts to steal as well, usually
min-raising or open limping from late position. 💪 They will often back off of even
reasonably strong hands when seemingly pot committed when faced with the prospect of
💪 bubbling out.
8. Protect Their Blinds. A good, aggressive bubble player on your right
can really cramp your style, as he 💪 will always be steal-raising ahead of you. But don’t
look at this as a thorn in the side, look at 💪 it as an opportunity: he is putting a lot
of money into the pot that he can’t defend. His only 💪 options are to keep raising and
donating to you, or to stop raising and let you get back to picking 💪 on the weak
players’ blinds; it’s a win-win for you. If the play-to-cashers won’t defend their
blinds, you should do 💪 it for them.
9. Make the Last Bet. Just because a player decides
to see a flop with you does not 💪 mean he has a big hand. With so many players stealing,
re-stealing, and defending, there are a lot people seeing 💪 flops without especially
strong hands. More often than not, they are hoping to get a cheap showdown or bully you
💪 off of your marginal holding. If you play your draws aggressively, you’ll find that
most players are no more willing 💪 to go to the felt after the flop than they were
before. You just need to structure the betting in 💪 such a way that [i]you[/i] are the
one pushing all-in, because it is a hell of a lot harder to 💪 call a push with a marginal
hand than it is to push with a marginal hand.
10. Come Stacked. Although the 💪 bubble is
a profitable time to push-bot, a 3x big blind raise from the table chipleader has a lot
more 💪 fold equity than an 8x all-in from a short stack. Ninety percent of the time I
choose accumulation over survival, 💪 but most tournaments have such juicy bubbles that it
can be correct to structure your pre-bubble strategy around getting to 💪 the bubble with
a stack that will allow you to steal. This may mean taking gambles when you’re short in
💪 hopes of doubling up to a healthy stack, or it may mean passing on thin gambles when
losing the pot 💪 would leave you unable to steal on the bubble.
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